Tuesday, May 03, 2005


Federal Reserve Expected to Raise Rate

The Federal reserve is expected to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3 percent. Quarter-point increment increases have taken place throughout each of the FOMC's last seven meetings since June of 2005. Whether the Fed will continue to raise rates to 4 percent is still undetermined. There is chatter amongst analysts and commentators about rising inflation, but one could potentially quantify inflation by looking at the P/E ratios of the equity components in the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 to get a better idea. P/E ratios are notoriously low during periods of inflation. Furthermore, the Fed typically looks to keep inflation in check by raising rates. Higher interest rates may lead to a rise in the value of the dollar against other currencies since high rates make the greenback attractive to foreign investors.

The greenback is hovering around $1.2871 against the euro. Against the yen, the dollar is trading at 105.10 yen. Meanwhile, the euro is keeping caution above a three-month low of below 135 at 135.23 yen. Most activity you'll see in the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY currency pairs may result from US and euro zone activity since Japan will be on holiday from Tuesday to Thursday. Euro zone uemployment claims took a rise in March to 8.9 percent while recession may be looming for the euro zone on warnings of a tightening in manufacturing for the first time in 20 months. This may not bode well for the euro.

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